Special educational needs and disabilities (SEND) spending could more than double from 2015 to 2028, research has found.

According to the Institute for Fiscal Studies’ (IFS) new report, the increase in SEND spending in schools is due to the ‘rapid’ rise in demand for Education, Health and Care Plans (EHCPs).

The report, titled ‘Annual report on education spending in England: 2025–26’, notes that the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) has forecasted a further £6bn gap between the amount spent by councils on SEND and the funding they will receive from Government in 2028–29.

Councils surpassed planned spending on schools by roughly £500m in 2024–25 and around £900m in 2025–26, which ‘almost certainly relates to overspending on high needs by local authorities’, according to the IFS.

How the Government seeks to reform the SEND system ‘will be the most important factor shaping the budget pressures on all schools in England in coming years’, the report reads.

Luke Sibieta, IFS Research Fellow and the author of the report, warned that it was ‘crunch time’.

‘The current system is increasingly costly and failing to deliver for everyone. Whether the Government can both put the system on a stronger long-term footing, and manage to generate shorter-term savings, will be a crucial test for the forthcoming schools white paper,’ he said.

Cllr Amanda Hopgood, Chair of the Local Government Association’s Children, Young People and Families Committee, urged the Government to ensure that the upcoming Schools White Paper establishes reforms that improve inclusion in mainstream schools, as well as supporting greater inclusivity in the early years.

She added: ‘Despite spending on SEND massively increasing over the last decade, the educational attainment of children with SEND has failed to improve, while councils continue to build up huge deficits related to SEND spending.’