A new National Audit Office (NAO) report has warned that declining primary school pupil numbers pose significant financial and educational risks, urging closer collaboration between central and local government.
The auditor’s report found that demand for primary places fell by 3% between 2018/19 and 2024/25, with a further 7% drop projected by 2030, pushing unfilled places from 10% to 14%.
Because most school funding is tied to pupil numbers, the NAO estimates that a projected reduction of around 56,300 fewer pupils by 2027 could result in schools receiving £288m less in per-pupil funding. The report flags that disadvantaged pupils could be disproportionately affected.
The NAO criticised the Department for Education for providing limited support to the sector to date and called on it to build on its Estates Strategy, consider impacts on pupil outcomes, and work across government to help make best use of surplus space.
Commenting on the report, Cllr Amanda Hopgood, chair of the Local Government Association’s Children, Young People and Families Committee, said: ‘The Department for Education should ensure that all schools, including academies, work together to manage the implications of a fall in pupil numbers, and to minimise the impact on children’s long-term educational attainment.
‘Schools are at the heart of communities and should remain open wherever possible and used where they can. The Department should see that there are arrangements in place to ensure flexibility in how any spare space is used, so they benefit communities.’
