William Eichler 17 July 2017

Housing crisis risks causing ‘demographic time bomb’, report says

High house prices are preventing a generation of people from having children and risk contributing to a ‘demographic time bomb’, think tank warns.

A new report from the Adam Smith Institute argues unaffordable housing has forced people to have smaller families and delay starting a family until later in life.

When combined with the decrease in immigration expected after Brexit and the country’s ageing population, the lower birth rate risks a demographic crisis that will see taxes increasing on working-age people in order to pay for their parents and grandparents.

High housing costs make this situation worse, argues the free market think tank.

Though rising house prices increase the birth rate among existing homeowners, they also keep people renting where they are less likely to have children.

This means the net effect of rising house prices is ‘highly negative’ on the national fertility rate.

Between 1996 and 2014, a 10% increase in house prices resulted in a 4.9% decrease in births among renters but just a 2.8% increase in births to homeowners – a net decrease of 1.3%.

The think tank estimated between 1996 and 2014 high house prices stopped approximately 157,000 children from being born — a trend, the report warns, that will get even worse without ‘radical action’ on housing from Whitehall.

The population over 85 years of age doubled between 1985 and 2010 and is expected to constitute almost 5% of the population by 2035.

This has ‘serious cost implications’ for taxpayers, with the over 85s costing the NHS three times as much as the average 65-74 year old whilst the number of working-age people for every pensioner is likely to fall from 3.2 to just 2.7 by 2037.

‘The housing crisis is a well-known immediate economic problem, but this report showcases how it is wrecking the lives of the people of this country, preventing them from having the children they want to have,’ said Andrew Sabisky, independent researcher and author of the report.

‘This private tragedy will, in the long-run, entail massive knock-on costs to public finances.

‘Housing market liberalisation is something the Government should do anyway, but this report outlines a new set of pressing reasons for it to act.’

Skills Pipelines: What local government needs to know image

Skills Pipelines: What local government needs to know

Councils and mayors are to be handed a central role in developing skills pipelines for local industries, as the Government unveils what it calls a ‘fundamental change’ to the education system aimed at tackling youth unemployment. Here's what council leaders and officers need to know.
SIGN UP
For your free daily news bulletin
Highways jobs

Early Career Development Programme Manager

London Borough of Richmond upon Thames and London Borough of Wandsworth
£50,484 – £61,176 per annum
Early Career Development Programme Mana... Wandsworth, London
Recuriter: London Borough of Richmond upon Thames and London Borough of Wandsworth

Digital Infrastructure Manager

Hyndburn Borough Council
£40,444 - £43,149 per annum
You will be an experienced ICT professional with strong technical expertise in networks, infrastructure and cyber security. Lancashire
Recuriter: Hyndburn Borough Council

Arboriculture & Conservation Officer

Hyndburn Borough Council
£39,481 – £41,177 per annum
You will have a qualification in arboriculture and 3 years’ experience working in arboriculture Lancashire
Recuriter: Hyndburn Borough Council

Planning Manager (Development Management)

Hyndburn Borough Council
£49,817 to £53,051 per annum
You should be a member of the RTPI with an excellent knowledge and experience of planning and development control. Lancashire
Recuriter: Hyndburn Borough Council

Senior Planning Officer/Principal Planning Officer (Career Grade)

Hyndburn Borough Council
£40,444– £43,149 progressing to £43,149- £46,579
This career-grade position offers an excellent opportunity for professional development and progression within a supportive and forward-thinking Lancashire
Recuriter: Hyndburn Borough Council
Linkedin Banner