William Eichler 17 July 2017

Housing crisis risks causing ‘demographic time bomb’, report says

High house prices are preventing a generation of people from having children and risk contributing to a ‘demographic time bomb’, think tank warns.

A new report from the Adam Smith Institute argues unaffordable housing has forced people to have smaller families and delay starting a family until later in life.

When combined with the decrease in immigration expected after Brexit and the country’s ageing population, the lower birth rate risks a demographic crisis that will see taxes increasing on working-age people in order to pay for their parents and grandparents.

High housing costs make this situation worse, argues the free market think tank.

Though rising house prices increase the birth rate among existing homeowners, they also keep people renting where they are less likely to have children.

This means the net effect of rising house prices is ‘highly negative’ on the national fertility rate.

Between 1996 and 2014, a 10% increase in house prices resulted in a 4.9% decrease in births among renters but just a 2.8% increase in births to homeowners – a net decrease of 1.3%.

The think tank estimated between 1996 and 2014 high house prices stopped approximately 157,000 children from being born — a trend, the report warns, that will get even worse without ‘radical action’ on housing from Whitehall.

The population over 85 years of age doubled between 1985 and 2010 and is expected to constitute almost 5% of the population by 2035.

This has ‘serious cost implications’ for taxpayers, with the over 85s costing the NHS three times as much as the average 65-74 year old whilst the number of working-age people for every pensioner is likely to fall from 3.2 to just 2.7 by 2037.

‘The housing crisis is a well-known immediate economic problem, but this report showcases how it is wrecking the lives of the people of this country, preventing them from having the children they want to have,’ said Andrew Sabisky, independent researcher and author of the report.

‘This private tragedy will, in the long-run, entail massive knock-on costs to public finances.

‘Housing market liberalisation is something the Government should do anyway, but this report outlines a new set of pressing reasons for it to act.’

Skills Pipelines: What local government needs to know image

Skills Pipelines: What local government needs to know

Councils and mayors are to be handed a central role in developing skills pipelines for local industries, as the Government unveils what it calls a ‘fundamental change’ to the education system aimed at tackling youth unemployment. Here's what council leaders and officers need to know.
SIGN UP
For your free daily news bulletin
Highways jobs

Waste Collection Manager

Middlesbrough Council
£41,771 - £44,075
We have an exciting role on offer within our Environmental Services as a Waste Collection Manager. Middlesbrough, North Yorkshire
Recuriter: Middlesbrough Council

Receptionist / Administrator

Middlesbrough Council
£26,403
Do you have excellent attention to detail and strong communication skills? Middlesbrough, North Yorkshire
Recuriter: Middlesbrough Council

Car Parking Notice Processing Officer

Middlesbrough Council
£27,254 - £28,142
We have an exciting role on offer within our Resident and Business Support team as a Car Parking Notice Processing Officer. Middlesbrough, North Yorkshire
Recuriter: Middlesbrough Council

Senior Supervisor

Derbyshire County Council
Grade 11 £39,865 - £43,270 per annum
Join our Highways Operations Service as a Senior Supervisor and play a key role in keeping our county moving. Derbyshire
Recuriter: Derbyshire County Council

Compliance and Works Coordination Manager

Derbyshire County Council
Grade 12 £44,433 - 47,925 per annum
This role is central to ensuring that all highway activities are delivered safely, efficiently, and in full compliance. Derbyshire
Recuriter: Derbyshire County Council
Linkedin Banner