Councils have warned that the Government’s forthcoming Schools White Paper must address spiralling special educational needs and disabilities (SEND) transport costs, as new analysis reveals bills could reach £3.4bn a year by 2030/31.

Research by the County Councils Network (CCN) shows local authorities transported a record 206,000 children and young people with SEND last year. If trends continue, that figure is projected to rise to 311,000 by the end of the decade – the equivalent of a ‘city’s worth’ of additional pupils.

Transport costs have already climbed to £2bn – up from £645m in 2015 when SEND reforms expanded eligibility. Councils say spending could increase by a further £1.4bn within six years, with average per-pupil transport costs rising from £9,481 to nearly £11,000.

Half of all SEND transport spending falls on county and rural authorities, where longer distances drive up costs. SEND provision accounted for 64% of councils’ school transport budgets in 2015 – a share forecast to hit 85% by 2030/31, squeezing mainstream services.

Cllr Bill Revans, SEND spokesperson for the CCN, said: ‘After the government’s announcement that SEND deficits will be largely paid off, all eyes are on the Schools White Paper as a means to bring the system back to sustainability. It is vital that government does not ignore the alarming rise in SEND school transport costs, which has become one of the biggest pressures on council budgets over the last few years.’

Cllr Amanda Hopgood, chair of the Local Government Association’s Children, Young People and Families Committee, said: ‘These findings reinforce the need for comprehensive reform of the SEND system, and that the Schools White Paper must consider how we fund and provide home to school transport.

‘Councils are consistently overspending on this service, diverting funds from other priorities to manage the growing costs.

‘To help tackle this, the SEND reforms have to deliver significant improvements to inclusion in mainstream settings, whilst still ensuring we have adequate provision in special schools for those who need it.’