Deficits relating to special educational needs and disabilities (SEND) services are set to balloon to £10.4bn over the next two years, new analysis has projected.

A surge in demand will dwarf current deficits of about £6bn, according to data from the County Councils Network (CCN), based on a survey of local authorities by the Association of Local Authorities Treasurer Societies.

Even if the Government extends its commitment to remove 90% of debts to 2028, one in 10 of surveyed councils said it may not stave off issuing a section 114 notice.

It comes as the Government prepares to distribute £5bn to cover 90% of SEND deficits accrued to March 2026.

CCN’s SEND spokesperson Cllr Linden Kemkaran said: ‘Whilst this bailout addresses yesterday’s debt, councils are not out of the woods and tomorrow’s deficits are already building at an even faster pace.

‘Despite this, we have little clarity from Government on how much support we will receive – and when.’

Ministers have so far promised ‘appropriate and proportionate’ but ‘not unlimited’ financial support for SEND costs up to March 2028, when the Department of Education is set to take over responsibility.

CCN’s analysis found deficits are on course to reach a £10.4bn by March 2028 as parents, carers and schools look to secure education, health and care plans before reforms come into force.

It has called for the Government to commit to wipe out deficits for the next two years.

Chief executive of the Chartered Institute of Public Finance (CIPFA), Owen Mapley, said: ‘The continued escalation of SEND deficits exposes a serious failure to align statutory responsibilities with funding levels.

‘The system needs funding certainty, reform and a framework that supports both better outcomes for children with SEND and long-term financial resilience for councils.’