From the outset of the pandemic, it was clear that its impacts would not be felt equally across different parts of the population. The coronavirus outbreak has, in many instances, exacerbated and amplified existing inequalities in wealth, race, gender, age, education and geographical location. This applies when it comes to both the exposure to the disease itself, and to the economic impact of lockdown measures. But disparities in communities’ resilience has been overlooked in the calls to ‘Build back better’.
The UK is one of the most regionally unbalanced economies in the industrialised world, and the economic shock of the pandemic is likely to add to the challenges faced by many communities across the country. From healthcare and education to housing and work, the needs of many vulnerable groups have become more acute during the period since Match 2020. This presents clear challenges to community resilience – which was already much stronger in some areas than in others.
While mutual aid groups became the glue that bound many communities tightly together during a time of crisis, civic engagement and social capital is not equally spread across the country, and many saw growing mistrust instead. Moreover, in many places, existing initiatives to strengthen community resilience were paused or stopped altogether at the outset of the pandemic, as strained resources were moved directly towards frontline service provision.
Now, for many communities, economic hardship beckons – creating new vulnerabilities to many of the divisive and hateful narratives which HOPE not hate seeks to combat. As our research has consistently shown, when people have little hope for their own chances in life, it is much harder for them to show openness and compassion for others. People who feel a strong sense of decline can sometimes look for someone to blame for the loss they feel, or try to assert their dominance as they feel their status slip away. And this makes it is easier for opportunists to exploit fears and stoke divisions. The post-pandemic landscape poses enormous challenges for ensuring hope over hate.
And this is likely to play out across geographic divides. Our research has consistently found that communities with the greatest anxiety about immigration and multiculturalism are also the ones which have suffered through economic decline, have weak civic, social and economic infrastructure, and feel most distance from power.
In our new report we look at how the longer term economic impacts will shape community relations in the post pandemic landscape. Widening inequalities have the potential to fuel political polarisation and division – feeding resentments and frustrations, and creating a space for those who seek to divide. By analysing areas most impacted by three overlapping challenges – the immediate impact of the pandemic, underlying economic resilience, and hostility to immigration and multiculturalism based on our attitudinal Fear and Hope data – we find 52 local authorities where community resilience is most at risk.
We believe that these are the local authorities where stresses on social cohesion are most likely to have been amplified by the economic consequences of the pandemic. This does not mean that these places will automatically be susceptible to far right overtures, or even that they are the most vulnerable in the country to cohesion issues. But it does mean that these are the areas where the impact of COVID-19 is most likely to have enlarged these risks.
But our data analysis shows that this list could grow if certain measures are pursued such as the introduction of austerity measures, cuts to welfare benefits or a lack of investment in skills. Our polling finds an anxious Britain, where many fear losing their job over the next year, and our engagement with ‘at risk’ local authorities finds many already fearing the impact of a period of economic downturn on community relations.
In the recovery process, the Government has some difficult choices to make, but it should consider the impact on communities. A return to austerity, cuts to welfare support or a failure to address productivity and boost skills will all serve to make these challenges more acute, but also for more areas to be impacted.
Efforts by central government to ‘build back better’ will need to work particularly hard to strengthen the social fabric; they will need to look beyond definitions of ‘levelling up’ which relate purely to economic infrastructure, and to develop initiatives which strengthen cohesion and community resilience.
Given the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on community relations, and the scale of the forthcoming challenges for community resilience, it is essential that building back better is also building back resilient.
Chris Clarke is a policy researcher at HOPE not hate Charitable Trust
