As we enter party conference season, with Labour trailing the Conservatives by 20 points and its leader’s popularity plummeting, the Conservatives can go to Birmingham with the odds on at least eight to 10 years of Tory government from 2010. But what does this mean for local government? It is, after all, already Tory, pretty much.
It almost certainly won’t mean more money. Will, in Eric Pickles’ words, ‘an incoming Conservative government pass power down to local councils?’ The latest Conservative ideas include allowing authorities to keep a portion of local business rates and the removal of council tax capping, replacing it with local referendums to approve increases above ‘the norm’. Of course, council tax referenda are very unlikely to ever see really inflation-busting rises voted through, especially if a zero rise has to be offered. Bitterly aware of its toxicity, the Conservatives have never had much time for a replacement for council tax, although I had been hoping for a ‘Bank of England’ moment by an incoming Government strengthened by a significant majority and considerable political capital.
Away from the Westminster party, it is clear that Conservative local government varies dramatically from tax-cutting Wandsworth and Hammersmith and Fulham on the one hand to more paternalistic authorities like Essex and many shire districts.
One rather hopes that the Conservatives surprise us all with an early move that eases the logjam we have reached on the balance of power and spending between centre and localities. It will be more risky than Labour’s Bank of England moment.
Local government really has little positive to offer any national government in terms of electoral popularity if one is brutally honest, and plenty of bear traps for the unwary, but it would be fantastic for them to try something radical. Don’t expect this to be unveiled this month, but do keep your fingers crossed.
Staying Safe in Local Elections: Challenges and support for candidates
With local elections nearing, rising abuse fears are deterring candidates - this analysis explores risks, definitions, and new guidance to support safer campaigning.
