Jonathan Werran 02 May 2013

Councils have a higher population than previously calculated

Government statisticians have upwardly revised by nearly half a million population estimates across 348 local authority areas in England and Wales - in light of the 2011 Census.

Figures released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) show the Census unearthed 464,000 more people than were forecast. This represents a population increase 0.8% higher than that previously calculated on a ‘rolled forward’ basis – which involves taking the previous year’s estimate and factoring in births and deaths and migration patterns.

Some 216 local authority areas representing more than three in five (62%) of the total saw a higher population and 132 areas (38%) experienced a decline in population.

More than seven out of ten authorities witnessed relatively minor fluctuations in population of 5,000 more or fewer residents, but 28% of areas suffered adjustments of 5,000 or more people, the figures revealed.

London boroughs led the national field for population growth, holding four of the five top growth spots.

Newham LBC was top with an additional 68,100 residents, increasing the total population to 310,500. Next came Brent LBC with an extra 51,500 people to account for and a revised population of 312,200; Haringey LBC's projection soared by 29,900 to 255,500 inhabitants and Waltham Forest LBC's by an extra 28,900 people and 259,700 people. Birmingham City Council had an extra 27,000 residents, bringing the total population of the country’s biggest local authority to 1,074,300.

Mayor of Newham Sir Robin Wales said: ‘We have long been concerned about an undercount by ONS of our population and associated funding gap.

'This is at a time when we are facing deep cuts in our grant from Government and is unacceptable.’

On the opposite side of the spectrum, updated figures gave Leeds a population of 750,700, smaller by 58,300 than first estimates. In second place for reduced numbers came Westminster City Council, whose 36,600 disparity brought projections of a 256,100 population down to a mere 219,600 under official figures.

Last September, Westminster MP Mark Field told a parliamentary debate the current process for estimating population sizes was inappropriate for large urban authorities.

Mr Field blamed the 9% population variation on the ONS’s inflexible methodology and said the reduced census figures could result in an annual revenue loss to Westminster City Council of between £10-15m until 2020.

LGOF: Will it work? image

LGOF: Will it work?

Dr Jonathan Carr-West, LGIU, discusses the Local Government Outcomes Framework (LGOF), the latest instalment in the history of local government accountability.
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