In 2022, it will be 10 years since the Social Value Act received Royal Assent. I doubt the crystal ball gazers in 2012 would have forecast a full decade before social value became business as usual in the public sector. But after a slow start, the adoption of social value has accelerated rapidly, even before COVID-19 and the climate emergency added fuel to the fire.

There is another major milestone next year – a minimum 10% for social value mandated in all NHS procurement from 1st April. After years of local government leading the charge on social value, the momentum on social value now looks unstoppable.

So, what does 2022 hold for social value in local government?

1. Bouncing back

Social value only makes sense if the fundamentals of human existence are taken care of. This means creating sustainable economic opportunity for people through decent jobs and thriving local businesses. It is only natural that rebuilding local economies should be a major driver for local authorities. The economic elephant in the room is inequality. A social value strategy is needed to ensure the rebound is both sustainable and equitable.

2. Joining up

Public bodies are not just providers of services and consumers of taxpayers’ money. They are vital nodes in the socio-economic fabric of a place. They are often its main economic anchors and agents for change. Collaboration between the key public actors in a community creates the fabric that sustains it. Expect to see more Preston Models as local authorities link up with their local public partners (like the NHS) to bring the concept of place-based social value to life.

3. Right sizing

Local authorities want to know what social value “ask” is appropriate for different sizes and categories of commercial contracts. Councils vary greatly in terms of size, capacity, the populations they serve and their needs. The pioneering work on implementing social value in local government is done and in 2022, we should see a move to a more mature phase where best practice is shared so authorities can tailor their approach better. At the same time, social value should become less tactical and ad hoc and more strategic. Just now, our research shows that more than half of English local authorities still don’t have a social value strategy.

4. Big Fat Zero

Climate change is another area where local authorities continue to show real leadership. Commentators are increasingly recognising the interdependencies between tackling climate change and addressing inequality. This is not just about fairness but about the risk of climate policy failure unless the social dimension is properly addressed. Climate change is happening in an economic context that is anything but static – automation, digitisation and AI are rapidly transforming the world of work, while the UK still struggles to overcome a historic productivity lag. So, the economic goalposts are not just moving but disappearing over the horizon.

The ‘Just Transition’ is the (somewhat technocratic) term for building in the potential for people to migrate to this new economy, through investment, training, and development. Public awareness of the Just Transition is limited at the moment, but we expect it to trend in 2022. It is a key social value dimension for Net Zero, but not the only one. There are health and wellbeing elements as well, through reduced air pollution and improved access to green spaces, as well as questions of adaptation (sustainable local flood management, for example) and tackling the global inequalities endemic in far-reaching and usually opaque supply chains.

More than ever, local authorities need to understand the social and economic needs of their communities – the potential losses as well as the gains from this revolution as it gathers momentum. They have some levers to pull but an equitable transformation to a zero-carbon economy is clearly not a responsibility they can shoulder alone.

In 2022, social value won’t just sit alongside the environmental agenda; it will define the transition to a net zero economy.

It’s going to be a busy year.

Nathan Goode is chief strategy officer at Social Value Portal