Our latest study for the Leadership Centre for Local Government shows just how difficult political leadership is to do well.
Published later this year, it looks at the characteristics of the most successful local politicians, and compares them with the less successful.
The lessons are salutary. What is interesting is that the skills needed – and thoughtful application of them – are, in some ways, harder to apply then in a managerial environment.
Look at the national situation. Unless things change, by the summer, it is unlikely that Labour will win a fourth term. John Major’s Government was equally unpopular in the early 1990s, before the Conservative’s narrow victory of 1992, but look how unpopular Gordon Brown is relative to Mr Major at the same point.
Not all of it is Mr Brown’s fault. Whereas Mr Major was relatively unknown, and from a very different background from popular stereotypes of Tory leaders, Mr Brown has a visible record on the economy, now under threat.
What is unfolding is a classic case of a government losing an election, rather than opposition winning one. ‘Events’, political gravity and a leader who clearly doesn’t have the luck of his predecessor are doing their work.
Next week’s local elections will not be the final nail in the coffin. The Labour party already has less than half the councillors it had in 1997, and in 2000, 2002, 2003, 2004 it was roundly beaten by the Conservatives, only to win general elections in 2001 and 2005. Similarly, Labour beat the Tories in the 1991 local elections, and still lost in 1992. Doing badly in local elections does not automatically spell doom for a government.
But a win in London for Boris Johnson, and some beginnings of Conservative inroads into more northerly authorities will add considerably to the near perfect storm that Labour now finds itself facing.
Staying Safe in Local Elections: Challenges and support for candidates
With local elections nearing, rising abuse fears are deterring candidates - this analysis explores risks, definitions, and new guidance to support safer campaigning.
