12 February 2009

Harsh weather gives a lesson in managing risk

The extreme weather predicted last week did not materialise in certain areas, but hundreds of schools remained shut, nonetheless, after councils decided to issue blanket closures the day before.

Those councils which took the rare decision say they were following the advice of weather forecasters who expected extreme and dangerous conditions, and they wanted to give parents time to arrange for their children to be cared for. Birmingham City Council bosses used their powers to issue a blanket closure on all the authorities 400 schools on Monday, because the weather on Tuesday was expected to be ‘extreme’.

Local radio stations were recruited to inform parents of the closures, but the extreme snowfall did not materialise. Strategic director of Birmingham’s children, young people and families department, Tony Howell, defended the council’s decision.

He says: ‘The highways department had advised that the public should not travel unless it was essential, and against this backdrop we felt the weather forecast and conditions looked severe enough to make a decision to order a blanket closure on Monday evening, and give parents a chance to plan alternative arrangements.’

Scottish Borders Council ordered the closure of all schools in its area after eight inches of snow were forecast, but the snow did not fall, leaving parents to scramble unnecessarily for last-minute child minders or holiday time. But the council’s director of education and lifelong learning, Glenn Rodger, says the council had to balance the risk.

‘Making an early decision enabled us to give parents time to make childcare arrangements,’ he says. ‘We understand parents are frustrated that the forecasts turned out to be wrong but based on available information, the risks were considered too high.’ But a very different view was taken at Shropshire CC, where staff made every effort to keep schools open.

Education places manager, John Baxter, says: ‘We didn’t want to follow the action taken in Birmingham and Solihull, because if schools can open, then that’s better for the children. ‘Past experience has shown that weather forecasts are not always – nor do they claim to be – 100% accurate.’

On finding out there was a 60% chance of heavy snow, Shropshire CC bosses advised head teachers to monitor the weather in their local areas first thing in the morning before taking a decision whether to close,rather than making the decision the day before. One the actual morning, head teachers were asked to call the local radio station which broadcast the closure list, and the council ran a hotline for parents to get the latest information on school closures, from 7.15am. At Kent CC, it was also felt head teachers should make the decision on an individual basis.

A spokesperson says: ‘We have to trust our head teachers in their abilities to decide whether their schools can open or not.’

Chairman of the Local Government Association’s children and young people board, Cllr Les Lawrence, admits this is a lose-lose situation for councils, because whatever they do, they face criticism from parents for either erring too much on the side of caution or for being irresponsible.

He says: ‘Closing a school is a difficult decision for all involved. If the emergency services and transport bosses are advising people not to travel, then it surely sends out the wrong message to still expect staff and pupils to struggle into the classroom. ‘There is also a danger of children being stranded at school, if the weather suddenly takes a turn for the worse. The safety of children must be our prime concern.’

The Government supported councils during the bad weather, saying parents benefited from having time to plan. England’s schools secretary Ed Balls told listeners on BBC Radio 4’s The World At One: ‘There is always a balance to be struck. ‘In retrospect, maybe the schools could have opened. But I think many parents, wanting to plan their arrangements for today, would have been pleased to have certainty yesterday about what was going to happen today.'
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