The Education Policy Institute (EPI) has published new analysis showing a sustained decline in primary school enrolments across London, raising pressing challenges for local councils responsible for planning and funding school places.
Since 2017/18, nine of the 10 local authorities with the steepest pupil drops are in the capital, with Westminster down 15.9%. Closures have already taken place in Southwark, Hackney, and Islington, highlighting the strain on councils to manage capacity and ensure efficient use of school buildings.
Looking ahead, boroughs including Islington, Lambeth, and Southwark are projected to see falls of 14–20% by 2028/29. Analysts note that declining birth rates, housing pressures, and shifts in family residence patterns are key drivers of this trend.
EPI stresses that local authorities must adopt data-driven approaches to adjust school provision, funding, and long-term planning, ensuring sustainable access to education and protecting the viability of affected schools.
