The Conservatives look set to hold onto Newark in the by-election on Thursday, according to a poll conducted by Lord Ashcroft.
The poll carried out by the Tory peer found that 42% of voters intend to vote Conservative on Thursday, with UKIP coming in second with 27% of the voters. Labour came third in the poll with 20% of the vote.
The poll also suggested that those voting UKIP on Thursday were happy to admit their allegiance to the party. Seven in ten people who said they would be voting for Roger Helmer said they were doing so to register their discontent at the other parties.
In his blog, Lord Ashcroft explained his poll showed a similar level of support for UKIP when compared to the Survation poll published at the weekend, even though his contained a ‘spiral of silence adjustment’.
He explained: ‘The adjustment works by re-allocating a proportion of those who refuse to state or claim they don’t know how they will vote to the party they voted for at the last election. It was introduced to help account for “shy” voters who were reluctant to admit their allegiance, a problem which had the effect of seriously skewing polls at previous elections.
‘The similarity of the UKIP share in polls that did and did not use this adjustment suggests that there is nothing shy about the party’s voters; they do not coyly claim to be undecided.’
A fifth of voters said they might change their mind about who they vote for on Thursday.
David Cameron is expected to reshuffle his cabinet following the by-election, which could see Eric Pickles moved from his post as communities secretary.
