Austin Macauley 31 March 2016

Polling shake-up planned after inquiry into general election debacle unearths flaws

‘Unrepresentative samples’ were to blame for pollsters’ failure to predict last year’s general election result, an inquiry has found.

By using methods that ‘systematically over-represented Labour supporters and under-represented Conservative supporters’, polling organisations left the nation expecting a hung parliament rather than the Tory victory that emerged.

The report by the British Polling Council and Market Research Society concluded ‘statistical adjustment procedures applied to the raw data’ could not undo the damage caused by these flaws.

The BPC has called for a raft of measures outlined in the report to be implemented immediately to improve the accuracy of future polls.

They include greater transparency about how polls have been weighted and to ‘specify what changes, if any, have been made since a company’s previous published poll’.

It also plans to develop industry-wide approaches to gauging confidence in a poll’s estimate of a party’s share of the vote and to calculating the statistical significance of the change in a party’s estimated vote share since a previous poll.

Professor John Curtice, president of the British Polling Council, said: ‘The inquiry has undertaken what was an important but demanding task in a timely and professional fashion.

‘I am confident that all those with an interest in understanding the difficulties that beset the polls in 2015 will find its report an illuminating and profitable read. The council now wishes to ensure that its work is put to best use so that the transparency and accuracy of opinion polls is enhanced in future.’

Black hole spending review image

Black hole spending review

Jonathan Werran, chief executive of Localis, reflects on what the Spending Review means for local government.
SIGN UP
For your free daily news bulletin
Highways jobs

Educational Psychologist - Main Grade

Essex County Council
£43483.0000 - £63394.0000 per annum
Educational Psychologist - Main GradePermanent, Full TimeSoulbury Psychologists Scale A from 3 to 8 plus SPA opportunityLocation
Recuriter: Essex County Council

Cleaner

Durham County Council
£24,027 pro rata
Cleaner Grade 1    £24,027 pro rata 12.5 hours per week, term time only + 4 weeks Permanent Required from 1st September 2025 The Head Teacher is look Durham
Recuriter: Durham County Council

Social Work Assistant - Children In Care

Durham County Council
Grade 6 - £27,269 - £30,060 (Pay award pending)
We are seeking a Social Work Assistant (22 hours per week) to support our young people aged between 0 to 18 within our Children in Care Service.  WHA Durham
Recuriter: Durham County Council

Team Leaders Transactional Services

Durham County Council
£39,513 to £43,693 p.a. (Grade 11) Pay Award Pending
An opportunity has arisen for a time-limited position of Team Leader within Durham County Council’s Transactional Services Team. There are two posts Spennymoor
Recuriter: Durham County Council

Apprentice - Procurement Degree

Durham County Council
Grade 1 £24,027 Pay award pending
Earn. Learn. Qualify.   Do you want to earn while you learn, with the chance of progression once you qualify? Do you want the opportunity to grow, dev Durham
Recuriter: Durham County Council
Linkedin Banner